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The following information was found at www.coping.org! It's a fantastic site and I highly recommend you go there to see it all for yourself. You may
find some very useful information!
 Traps
leading to Over-controlling
In the following list
are some ways in which others control people to do for them the things they could do for themselves.
They use:
-
-
-
conning
-
feigning crises so as to “hook”
others into taking over control or rescuing them
-
This behavior defies
the exhortation of Christ:
"Give and it will
be given to you. A good measure, pressed down, shaken together and running over will be poured into your lap. For with the
measure you use, it will be measured to you."
(Luke 6:38).
Christ exhorts his followers
to not be self-serving and self-focused but rather other-serving and other-focused. Christ encouraged his followers to be personally responsible for themselves and they would receive their reward in eternal life for so doing this.
By getting others
to take care of them, these people display an obvious lack of faith in the sovereignty of God and have ignored Christ’s promise:
"Every thing is possible
for him who believes."
(Mark 5:25-34).
People who manipulate, intimidate, con or badger others into taking over-control for their lives are not living out God’s will in their lives. They are out of fellowship with Christ since he said:
"Whoever does God’s
will is my brother and sister and mother."
(Mark 3:35).
Taking advantage of the good will of others and getting them to sacrifice themselves to take care of you is out of the will of God since God expects each one of us to carry our own load.
By being over-dependent, helpless and needy we are setting up an evil trap for our controlling prone brothers and sisters. As Jesus in Luke 6:45 warned us:
"the good man brings
good things out of the good stored up in his heart, and the evil man brings evil things out of the evil stored in his heart.
For out of the overflow of his heart his mouth speaks."
If we are guilty of getting others to take over for our personal lives we are responsible for taking advantage of their generosity and love.
We must recognize that in manipulating others to take over for our needs we are working against God’s sovereign plan for our lives, since Christ pointed out that in the case of the blind man
in John 9:3 that
"...this happened so that the work of God might be displayed in his life."
God’s sovereign
will is not known to us. We are most likely competing or fighting God’s plan for us by not handling our life’s needs on our own without the caretaking and fixing of those we have conned into rescuing us.
Have you experienced a sense
of hopelessness recently?
It seems that there are a
lot of people out there that feel stuck in situations that are draining, depressing and going nowhere.
Don’t give up!
I want to offer you some hope. I want to extend to you some suggestions on how to overcome your hopeless and trapped feelings.
Together let’s make
the sun shine on you again!
A story of a woman feeling hopeless and trapped
This is a true story.
I know a woman, let’s call her Jane, that feels hopeless and trapped.
Jane has worked full-time
the last 20 years for a large retail chain. Her schedule often includes working evenings, weekends and holidays.
She hates her job because it keeps her from spending more time with her grandchildren and other loved ones.
Her employer demands more
and more from Jane all the time. They continually raise her sales quotas and put pressure on her to meet them. This stresses Jane because she really wants to meet their expectations, but it is becoming increasingly difficult.
Jane lives paycheck to paycheck
and doesn’t have any savings. Retirement is just around the corner for her and fortunately she has already started
to receive Social Security benefits, but she isn’t sure it will be enough to live on once she has to stop working.
Jane has arthritis in her
knees and has to stand on her feet for most of her 8-hour shifts which is sometimes painful. There are times she misses
work because the pain is too much to bear.
Of course, Jane is also concerned about how to cover the high-cost of healthcare once she retires. She knows she’ll need prescriptions and a doctor’s care to manage her arthritis, but she doesn’t know how she’ll afford these
things.
Jane lives alone in an apartment where the rent continues to rise. She fears that eventually she’ll no longer be able to afford to renew her lease. Of course, this presents a multitude of issues because Jane doesn’t have the money
to pay moving expenses never mind finding a new place.
Adding to her troubles, Jane’s
employer is suffering from the recession and closing stores. She doesn’t think her store will be one of the ones to close, but since she is older and makes a higher salary, she wonders if they might lay
her off.
Jane’s feelings about this downward spiraling situation leaves her negative, depressed and fearful. Of course, this is a further strain
on her health, relationships and happiness.
Jane feels hopeless and trapped.
I won’t kid you.
Jane’s situation isn’t pretty. It is a mess, but I don’t think it is as rare as we would like to believe nor do I believe it is completely hopeless.
I think there are a lot of people feeling stuck in a similar situation as Jane. There are people dealing with seemingly crushing
issues with their:
- Jobs
- Finances
- Health
- Marriage
- Children
These are usually the big
five that create the most anxiety in people’s lives.
Jane is struggling in three
of these areas. She has trouble with her job, finances and health.
These three issues are intertwined
which is what makes the whole situation seem so complicated and therefore hopeless.
We must take a pragmatic approach
to help Jane sort out what to do.
Feeling hopeless and trapped comes from the notion that there is nothing that can be done to resolve the
situation. We must exert control in order to regain hope. Here’s how to do it:
1. Write down the
issues that leave you feeling hopeless and trapped
When problems swirl around
in our heads, they often grow out of proportion. They also become entangled with our emotions. This quickly overwhelms us.
Writing down the problems
helps us to organize them and to separate the emotion from the real, practical issues. This simple step will start to give you a sense of power.
Be as specific and complete
as possible. Try not to leave out any factors influencing your decisions.
We’ve already completed
this step for Jane.
2. Determine the root issue that is causing all the other
problems
Usually, there is one root
cause that is leading to all the other issues occurring. In Jane’s case, her lack of financial resources is largely
responsible for most of her trouble.
If Jane wasn’t so financially
strapped, she could look for another job that might initially pay a little less, but that would offer her a better schedule
and maybe allow her to sit while she works.
Don’t fret too long
about determining the root cause. In fact, I would suggest going with your first inclination after writing things down.
Once you start to take some action, the situation will unfold and you’ll be able to adjust, if necessary.
3. Decide where you are willing to make some sacrifices
People usually wind up feeling trapped and hopeless because they don’t see any flexibility. In order to address the root cause of the problems, you have to make
room for change in your life.
This generally requires you
to make some sacrifices in one area so you have the room to make changes in another. Normally, these sacrifices are temporary so they shouldn’t cause too much panic.
For instance, in Jane’s
case, she might decide to find a much cheaper apartment for a year or two so she can change jobs. The cheaper apartment won’t likely be as nice as what she enjoys today, but what’s more important?
This temporary sacrifice in
lifestyle might give Jane the flexibility she needs to find a job with a more stable employer offering her a better schedule that doesn’t require her to stand all the time on her arthritic knees.
Who knows? Once Jane feels better about her situation, she might perform better in her new job which may lead to a promotion and even higher pay than she had
before!
4. Make a plan for change and take immediate action
Once you determine the root
cause and decide where you might be willing to make some sacrifices, then you are ready to formulate a plan for change and take action.
Write out the steps toward
change that you need to make to address your root cause. A written plan will help you stay on track.
For Jane, she might have the
following plan:
- Find a cheaper apartment.
- Move.
- Save some money.
- Find a better job.
Jane should immediately break
this down to the smallest actionable steps possible. For instance, she could breakdown Step 1 as follow:
- Buy newspaper.
- Look in newspaper for cheaper apartments.
- Call and set appointments to view 2 to 3 apartments.
Once Jane has such a list
of action steps, she should act immediately. Any delay will allow the small momentum gained through this process
to evaporate. It is imperative that action is taken with as little delay as possible! Jane could go right now
and buy a newspaper.
5. Constantly review progress and re-evaluate the situation
Chances are that just getting
started with this process will make you and Jane feel better because it restores a sense of some power and control.
It opens one’s mind to the possibilities. It creates hope.
Refer often to the your original
assessment of the issues, your root cause and your plan for change. Has anything improved? How are you feeling? What else can you do to make positive changes?
This constant process of re-evaluating
the situation will ensure you stay on track and will also give you the ability to make adjustments as necessary.
Warning: Read this before starting this process!
Taking some action in a positive direction is absolutely, positively necessary in order to overcome your feelings of desperation and hopelessness.
However, you should take small
steps and go slowly. You need to clear the fog from your head before making any rash choices.
For instance, do not go in
and quit a job you hate before you have another source of income. This will only lead to more trouble!
Also, do not tell your spouse
that you want a divorce unless your situation involves extreme abuse, drug use or other unlawful activity. Instead, I encourage you to take positive action to fix your relationship. Divorce will introduce all kinds of problems of its own.
Whatever your situation, go
slow, be deliberate and be practical. You might even enlist a trusted advisor to review your plan with you to reveal potential kinks before taking any big steps.
Action is necessary, but it
must be positive and prudent!
You can beat the trapped and hopeless feelings!
There is hope. It is possible to dig yourself out of any hole. It just takes some time and effort. Do not continue wallowing
in your misery. Take action today to beat your hopelessness and to set yourself free!
What is your situation and what do you plan to do about it?
source site: click here
| Trapped in the Past #2 |
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| Melanie Peters |
Trapped Between An Anxiety Rock When You Say "Yes" and a
Guilty Hard Place When You Say, "No"
Dr. Jane Bolton, PsyD, LMFT, CC
A few months ago, I received
an email with a quotation from The Invitation, by visionary author, Oriah Mountain Dreamer:
“It doesn’t interest
me what you do for a living. I want to know what you ache for, and if you dare to dream of meeting your heart’s longing.
. . . I want to know if you can disappoint another to be true to yourself: . . .”
What makes us do that?
It’s usually out of fears, and the false beliefs that go with the fears.
There’s fear of disappointing others. Do you believe that YOU are responsible for another’s feelings and experience, and that the other person is not responsible for themselves?
False belief. This belief is often paired with the belief that others are responsible for your experience. That belief can make you think that if you’re not feeling happy, it is somebody else’s fault, and can lead to anger and resentment. And what about disappointing your own ever-growing self?
Then there’s fear of hurting someone else. Often with fear of hurting another is the belief that if another’s feelings are hurt, they will abandon you or retaliate against you. And that goes with the false belief that you are not really good enough if you don’t do or provide what they want. What about hurting your own self respect? How does it feel to think you have to “buy” affection?
And
under all, a fear of being abandoned emotionally if you disappoint, hurt, or irritate another.The false belief is that you need constant approval. That you will not survive if the other person is mad, disappointed, or hurt and withdraws or attacks.
How does it hurt you to avoid saying "no"?
There are other
common fears in saying ‘No”. But whatever the fears are, the problem is that when we make choices out of fear,
we deep down inside know it. And that eats away at our self esteem. We see our selves as weak and just perpetuate the false beliefs about our own unworthiness and lack of capability. Unfortunately, the less capable you feel, the more overwhelming external events can feel. So, then, of course, you feel even more anxious.
Assertiveness is the answer to the problem. If this sounds like you, you can find help. Learning to honor your own needs as well as consider others’ needs is the path of assertiveness.
Assertiveness includes your setting healthy boundaries which helps your self esteem. Saying “no” also helps protect the health of your relationships by assuring that you don’t build up resentments and emotional fatigue, both of which are relationship toxins.
Learn to say "yes"
to saying "no!"
Author's Bio Dr. Jane Bolton, a Licensed marriage and family therapist, certified contemporary psychoanalyst,
and certified master life coach is dedicated to supporting people in the fullest self expression of their Authentic Selves.
This includes Discovery, Understanding, Acceptance, Expression, and Self-Esteem. Call 310.838.6363 or visit www.DrJaneBolton.com and www.FreedomFromShame.com.
Get Out of the Negativity Trap
by Becky Waters
Everyday there are over 60,000 thoughts running through our
mind. The good news is that most of them are unconscious or we'd go crazy!
The bad news is that yes, they are unconscious.
Plus, most of them are the same thoughts we had yesterday, last week, or three months ago. But the even more unfortunate fact
is that a good majority of these thoughts - conscious and unconscious - are negative put-downs directed at our own self.
Have
you ever caught yourself saying any of these statements? (Or your own personal variaitions?)
- I'm too old
- I'm
such a klutz
- That was a stupid thing to say
- I can't do that because....
- I'm ugly, or fat, or too thin, or....
What’s
scary is these thoughts can go through our mind so automatically that we don't even realize we're thinking them. And they
usually come riding in on a wave of emotions that can range anywhere from light sarcasm to utter disgust.
Just think
what this is doing to our self-esteem. Not to mention our attitudes!
Truth is our words have power. They have power
to affect our thoughts and feelings, and our actions and beliefs. They affect the people in our lives and everything around
us.
Test it out yourself. Say something kind to your child, spouse, or a co-worker and notice their response. Then,
say something negative or critical and notice the difference in their reaction. Notice the difference in how each one makes
you feel.
Often though, we say mean things about our self that we would never say to someone else. What’s worse,
we believe them! Statements like the examples above are "affirmations" – declarations that something is true. The question
is, what are you affirming is true about your self? What are the results you're experiencing from these statements? Do these
statements make you feel good about yourself, or not so good?
If you're not feeling a sense of happiness and well-being
as you go through your day, chances are you're experiencing the results of negative thinking or self-limiting beliefs, which
are essentially, negative thought patterns. That's okay. The good news is that you can change your self-talk, that internal
dialogue which is basically a stream of affirmations.
It’s important to remember that with every word we think
or say, we are "affirming" and creating our life experiences. So working to rid ourselves of negative thinking and limiting
beliefs is critical to living a fulfilling life.
How do you get out of the negativity trap? The first step is to become
aware of your self-talk. When you catch yourself saying or thinking something negative or limiting about yourself, write it
down. Start keeping a log of your internal dialogue and notice the corresponding feelings that accompany it.
Step
two is to turn those negative, limiting statements into positive affirmations. Here are a few guidelines to keep in mind when
creating and working with affirmations:
1. Keep them in the present tense - as if they are already true. "I am" or
“I have” are good ways to begin.
2. Avoid the word "not" and its variations. For instance, "I am not fat"
or even "I am no longer fat" keeps the focus on "fat". "I am healthy and trim" would be a better choice.
3. Be frugal
with the wording. You're not writing a treatise here. If one affirmation fills up more than half of a 3x5 index card, go back
to the drawing board. Short and to the point is best.
4. Put some emotion behind them. Feelings turbo charge our words
giving them even more power. When you state your affirmation, dive in and really feel how wonderful it is that your statement
is, indeed true.
5. Turn them into a song. This not only makes them easier to remember, it also makes them more fun!
Here’s an example sung to the tune “The Farmer in the Dell” – “I’m healthy, fit, and trim.
I’m healthy, fit, and trim. I love my body now. I’m healthy, fit, and trim.” (from "13 Affirmation Songs
on Melodies You Already Know.")
Remember, the bulk of our internal dialogue is made up of the 60,000 habitual thoughts
that run through our subconscious and conscious mind. Changing these habitual thoughts is the same as changing any kind of
habit. It takes conscious daily practice doing the "new" until the new becomes the habit – usually about 25-30 days.
And just like doing anything new, it’s probably going to feel uncomfortable at first. But your diligence and stick-to-it-iveness
will pay off in the long run.
Here are just a few benefits of working with positive affirmations and getting out of
the negativity trap:
- less stress
- more energy and vitality
- increased confidence and self-esteem
- improved
ability in whatever area you’re working on
- greater sense of happiness and well-being
Copyright © 2008
Becky Waters
Author's Bio
Becky Waters
is an Inner Wellness Coach, Composer, and avid user of affirmations. Get a copy of her free special report, “13 Affirmation
Songs on Melodies You Already Know” when you join her mailing list at http://www.spiritualcoachingcenter.com
Top 10 Thinking Traps Exposed — How to Foolproof Your Mind, Part I
by Luciano Passuello
Our minds set up many traps for us. Unless we’re aware
of them, these traps can seriously hinder our ability to think rationally, leading us to bad reasoning and making stupid decisions.
Features of our minds that are meant to help us may, eventually, get us into trouble.
Here are the first 5 of the most harmful of these traps and
how to avoid each one of them.
1. The Anchoring Trap: Over-Relying on First Thoughts
“Is the population of Turkey greater than
35 million? What’s your best estimate?” Researchers asked this question to a group of people, and the estimates
were seldom too far off 35 million. The same question was posed to a second group, but this time using 100 million as the
starting point. Although both figures were arbitrary, the estimates from the ‘100 million’ group were, without
fail, concomitantly higher than those in the ‘35 million’ group. (for the curious, here’s the answer.)
Lesson: Your starting point can heavily bias your thinking:
initial impressions, ideas, estimates or data “anchor” subsequent thoughts.
This trap is particularly dangerous as it’s deliberately
used in many occasions, such as by experienced salesmen, who will show you a higher-priced item first, “anchoring”
that price in your mind, for example.
What can you do about it?
- Always view a problem from different perspectives. Avoid
being stuck with a single starting point. Work on your problem statement before going down a solution path.
- Think on your own before consulting others. Get as much
data as possible and explore some conclusions by yourself before getting influenced by other people’s anchors.
- Seek information from a wide variety of sources. Get
many opinions and broaden your frame of reference. Avoid being limited to a single point of view.
2. The Status Quo Trap: Keeping on Keeping On
In one experiment a group of people were randomly given one
of two gifts — half received a decorated mug, the other half a large Swiss chocolate bar. They were then told that they
could effortlessly exchange one gift for the other. Logic tells us that about half of people would not get the gift they prefered
and would hence exchange it, but in fact only 10% did!
We tend to repeat established behaviors, unless we are
given the right incentives to entice us to change them. The status quo automatically has an advantage over every other alternative.
What can you do about it?
- Consider the status quo as just another alternative.
Don’t get caught in the ‘current vs. others’ mindset. Ask yourself if you would choose your current situation
if it weren’t the status quo.
- Know your objectives. Be explicit about them and evaluate
objectively if the current state of affairs serves them well.
- Avoid exaggerating switching costs. They frequently are
not as bad as we tend to assume.
3. The Sunk Cost Trap: Protecting Earlier Choices
You pre-ordered a non-refundable ticket to a basketball game.
On the night of the game, you’re tired and there’s a blizzard raging outside. You regret the fact that you bought
the ticket because, frankly, you would prefer to stay at home, light up your fireplace and comfortably watch the game on TV.
What would you do?
It may be hard to admit, but staying at home is the best
choice here. The money for the ticket is already gone regardless of the alternative you choose: it’s a sunk cost,
and it shouldn’t influence your decision.
(This example is from an earlier article which focuses entirely
on the sunk cost effect. Check it out if you want to know more.)
What can you do about it?
- Be OK with making mistakes. Examine why admitting to
earlier mistakes distresses you. Nobody is immune to errors, so you shouldn’t make a big deal out of it — just
make sure you learn from them!
- Listen to people who were not involved in the earlier
decisions. Find people who are not emotionally committed to past decisions and ask their opinion.
- Focus on your goals. We make decisions in order to reach
goals. Don’t become attached to the particular series of steps you took towards that goal; always consider
how you can better fulfill that goal from now on.
4. The Confirmation Trap: Seeing What You Want to See
You feel the stock market will be going down and that now may
be a good time to sell your stock. Just to be reassured of your hunch, you call a friend that has just sold all her stock
to find out her reasons.
Congratulations, you have just fallen into the Confirmation
Trap: looking for information that will most likely support your initial point of view — while conveniently avoiding
information that challenges it.
This confirmation bias affects not only where you go to collect
evidence, but also how you interpret the data: we are much less critical of arguments that support our initial ideas and much
more resistant to arguments against them.
No matter how neutral we think we are when first tackling a
decision, our brains always decide — intuitively — on an alternative right away, making us subject to this trap
virtually at all times.
What can you do about it?
- Expose yourself to conflicting information. Examine all
evidence with equal rigor. Don’t be soft on disconfirmatory evidence. Know what you are about: Searching for alternatives
or looking for reassurance!
- Get a devil’s advocate. Find someone you respect
to argue against the decision you’re contemplating making. If you can’t find one, build the counterarguments yourself.
Always consider the other positions with an open mind (taking into account the other mind traps we are discussing here, by
the way).
- Don’t ask leading questions. When asking for advice,
make neutral questions to avoid people merely confirming your biases. “What should I do with my stocks?” works
better than “Should I sell my stocks today?”
5. The Incomplete Information Trap: Review Your Assumptions
Harry is an introverted guy. We know that he is either a
librarian or a salesman. Which one do you think he most probably is?
Of course, we may be tempted to think he’s almost certainly
a librarian. Haven’t we been conditioned to think of salesmen as having outgoing, if not pushy, personalities? Too bad
this reasoning may be dead wrong (or at least incomplete).
This conclusion neglects the fact that salesmen outnumber librarians about 100 to 1. Before you even consider Harry’s character traits, you
should have assigned only a 1% chance that he’s a librarian. (That means that even if all librarians are introverted,
all it takes is 1% of introverts among the salesmen to make the chances higher for Harry being a salesman.)
That’s just one example of how overlooking a simple data
element can make our intuitions go completely astray. We keep mental images — simplifications of reality — that
make we jump to conclusions before questioning assumptions or checking whether we have enough information.
What can you do about it?
- Make your assumptions explicit. Don’t take a problem
statement as it is. Keep in mind that for every problem you’re using implicit information — your assumptions.
It’s usually not hard to check the validity of assumptions, but first you need to know what they are.
- Always favor hard data over mental simplifications. Our
preconceptions — such as stereotypes — can be useful in many situations, but we should always be careful to not
over-rely on them. When given the choice, always prefer hard data.
Top 10 Thinking Traps Exposed — How to Foolproof Your Mind, Part II
by Luciano Passuello
In the first
part of this article, we focused on 5 traps that hinder
our ability to think rationally. As a quick recap, we discussed:
- The Anchoring Trap: Over-Relying on First Thoughts
- The Status Quo Trap: Keeping on Keeping On
- The Sunk Cost Trap: Protecting Earlier Choices
- The Confirmation Trap: Seeing What You Want to See
- The Incomplete Information Trap: Review Your Assumptions
Now it’s time to complete the list and expose
the remaining 5 dangerous traps to be avoided. Let’s dive right in.
6. The Conformity Trap: Everybody Else Is Doing It
In a series of experiments, researchers asked students in a classroom a series of very simple
questions and, sure enough, most of them got the answers right. In another group, they asked the same questions but this time
there were actors posing as students, purposefully pushing wrong answers. This time around, many more students provided wrong
answers based on the leads from the researchers’ assistants.
This “herd instinct” exists — to different
degrees — in all of us. Even if we hate to admit it, other people’s actions do heavily influence ours.
We fear looking dumb: failing along with many people is frequently not considered a big deal, but when we fail alone we must
take all the heat ourselves. There’s always peer pressure to adopt the behaviors of the groups we’re
in.
This tendency to conform is notoriously exploited in advertising.
Businesses often sell us products not based on their features, but by showing how popular they are: since others
are buying it in droves, why would we not join them?
Conformity is also one of the main reasons why once a book makes
into a well-known best-sellers list, it tends to “lock in” and continue there for a long time. People like to
consume what “everybody else” is consuming.
What can you do about it?
- Discount the influence of others.
When analyzing information, shield yourself from others’ opinions — at least at first. This is the best way to
decide without being subconsciously swayed by popular opinions.
- Beware “social proof”.
Always raise a flag when someone tries to convince you arguing primarily on the popularity of a choice, instead of on its
merit.
- Be courageous. Be willing to overcome
obstacles and defend your viewpoints, despite their unpopularity. Don’t be afraid to point out that the Emperor wears
no clothes.
7. The Illusion of Control Trap: Shooting in the Dark
Have you noticed that the vast majority of lotto players pick
their own numbers instead of using the sometimes available ‘auto-pick’ option (where the point of sales terminal
chooses the numbers for you)? We all know that however the numbers are chosen doesn’t change the chance of winning,
so why the strong preference for picking our own numbers?
Curiously, even in situations we clearly can’t
control, we still tend to irrationally believe that we can somehow influence results. We just love to feel in control.
Of course, it’s always easier to illustrate this trap
with chance games, but the tendency to overestimate our personal control of events influences every aspect of our daily lives.
Unfortunately, contrary to the lottery example above, the outcomes
of our decisions are usually complex and interconnected. It’s hard to assess to what extent we’re responsible
for the results we get. While some of the outcomes can be traced back to our own choices, a part of them will surely remain
just as well out of our direct control.
What can you do about it?
- Understand that randomness is part and
parcel of life. Although it may be hard to fathom or even admit it, some things are just random — in the sense
that they don’t depend on your effort at all. Accept responsibility for the things you can influence, but know that
for many others there is not much you can do. Better than assuming or expecting that every event is under your control is
to consciously choose how you respond to them.
- Beware of superstitions. Consider
how much of your decisions are based on things you cannot really explain. Make those unknowns explicit and put them under
scrutiny — instead of pretending you can control them.
8. The Coincidence Trap: We Suck at Probabilities
John Riley is a legend. He won a one-in-a-million-chance lottery…
twice! That makes it a 1-in-a-trillion event — which means that the lottery is rigged or maybe
John must have been singled out by Lady Luck, right?
Well, not really. Let’s try a little math: If, throughout
the years, 1000 lottery winners keep playing at least 100 times attempting the “miracle” of winning it once more,
that adds up to a non-negligible chance of 10% that someone will make it.
This means that the “miracle” is not only
possible but — given enough attempts — its likelihood increases to a point of becoming almost inevitable.
Another classic example: it takes a group of just 23 people to make it more likely than
not that two of them share the same birthday (day and month).
That’s how unintuitive probabilities are.
What can you do about it?
- Don’t over-rely on gut estimates.
While useful many times, gut estimates will sometimes be way off the mark. Make sure you properly discount their
importance or that you understand the ramifications of trusting them.
- Beware of “after the fact”
probabilities. One thing is the probability of someone having won the lottery twice — looking at it
in retrospect. Another completely different thing is that a particular person — chosen before the outcome —
wins it: that would indeed qualify as a one-in-a-trillion event — and would make anyone seriously doubt the legitimacy
of that lottery.
9. The Recall Trap: Not All Memories Are Created Equal
What’s your best guess for the probability of a randomly
selected flight ending in a fatal crash? While many people grossly overestimate it, MIT studies show that in reality these
fatal accidents happen at a rate of only 1 in 10,000,000.
The fact that people suck at estimating probabilities explains
only partially this tendency to mis-estimate: if you ask the same question right after a major airplane accident, be prepared
for even more biased assessments.
What happens is we analyze information based on experience,
on what we can remember from it. Because of that, we’re overly influenced by events that stand
out from others, such as those with highly dramatic impact or very recent ones. The more “special” an event is,
the greater the potential to distort our thinking. Of course, no one ever bothers about the other 9,999,999 planes that arrive
safely at their destinations — so there’s nothing more natural than forgetting about them.
What can you do about it?
- Get hard data. As usual, don’t
rely on your memory if you don’t have to. Use it, of course, but always endeavor to find data that confirms or discounts
your recollection as soon as possible.
- Be aware of your emotions. When
analyzing information, try to emotionally isolate yourself from it, at least temporarily. If you’re analyzing an event,
pretend it happened a long time ago or that it happened to someone else unrelated to you. Likewise, if asking for opinions,
find people who are not emotionally involved with them or their consequences.
- Beware the media. The media is
notorious for exaggerating the importance of certain events while conveniently neglecting others. Always evaluate information
on its relevance and accuracy, and not on how much exposure it gets.
10. The Superiority Trap: The Average is Above Average
A study surveyed drivers asking them to compare their driving skills to
other people in the experiment. Almost all the participants (93%!) rated themselves as ‘above average’.
With few exceptions, people have much inflated views
of themselves. They overestimate their skills and capabilities, leading to many errors in judgment.
And this is the reason I decided to close this article with
this particular thinking trap. After making ourselves aware of these many thinking traps, we may now become susceptible to
falling into a new one: the belief that we’re now immune to them.
Of course, the first step to avoid thinking traps is awareness
and constant vigilance, but beware: it’s much, much easier to notice others falling into these traps than us.
What can you do about it?
- Be humble. Always remember that
everyone has blind spots (yes, that includes me and you)!
- Surround yourself with honest people.
If we all have blind spots, nothing better than having honest people around us to point them out to us.
- Don’t go overboard. These
‘thinking traps’ are inherent parts of us: they make us human. Applying rigor and rational thinking to our decisions
is important, but that doesn’t mean that intuition has completely lost its place. Don’t get me wrong: I still
think that knowing about our own thinking traps is very useful — just don’t get too worked up about them.
Further Resources
These ten thinking traps barely scratch the surface when it
comes to how our thinking can be biased. Wikipedia’s list of cognitive biases has more than 100 of these traps, making it a hard-to-beat starting point for further learning.
The references for the studies that back up the data in this
article can be found on the respective articles on Wikipedia, as well as on the book Smart Choices. That’s a marvelous book about decision making, and one
which I highly recommend. Another great book to check out is Thomas Gilovich’s How We Know What Isn’t So.
If you'd like to read more of this author's very good works, click here.
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Entering the Domestic Violence Shelter
by Kathleen Howe
You would think that the domestic violence shelter would be a "haven of tranquility and safety,"
or at least that is what I thought before I entered into the realm of "the domestic violence shelter." It is a world all its
own. Nothing is quite like it. It's where the victim of violence enters into a "prison" of protection. Yes, I said it... "a
prison" of protection!
Perhaps it's my huge sense of naivety that has caused me to believe that my life was going
to be like a princess (although I was never anyone's princess) whose knight in shining armor would appear on horseback to
take me away to his castle and we'd live happily ever after. After all... I never even knew there was a welfare program within
our government until I was well into my thirties. In fact, by the time I had heard about it... it was too late for me to truly
save my family with it. I do remember my mother saying, "Honey, aren't there programs for people needing assistance?"
How would I know that answer? I had never needed assistance. My first husband was always working
too hard to keep me in the lifestyle to which I had become accustomed to while growing up. My own mother had challenged him
that he would never be able to do it. My second husband who had wooed me with roses almost every week of our brief courtship,
bought me what I believed to be "a diamond engagement ring," (Although when we were getting divorced I had it examined by
a jeweler to see how much it was worth and he told me that he "felt sorry for me." The ring wasn't even worth five dollars!)
and finally he had bought me a Volkswagen Rabbit.
He was a police officer, much like that Drew Peterson who was just indicted for murdering
his third wife. My police officer husband who was an abusive type of guy... never informed me of such a thing. He waited until
I had married abusive husband number four to do so. He liked seeing me entering into the realm of the prison of protection.
He thought he might be able to get custody of our son if I were to be housed in a shelter. He for sure wouldn't have to pay
child support then!
Enough bitter cherries I say! The domestic violence shelter is always a secret address. No
one is supposed to know where it is. What I found out was... the abusers all know where they are and so do the prostitutes,
the drug addicts and the alcoholics. Just go into the depths of the downtown dirties and you'll find out just where it is.
But the women who are inside have a curfew. They have chores. They want to steal whatever you brought with you. And the worst
of them want to kill the other women who are in the prison of protection. It's crazy!
A hidden fat trap
Shape, Dec, 2008
Chinese takeout is often greasy,
but that's not the only reason it can pack on pounds. According to a new study in Obesity, people who get the most monosodium
glutamate (MSG) are twice as likely to be overweight as those who rarely eat foods with the flavor enhancer.
"MSG may lower levels of leptin,
a hormone that regulates metabolism and hunger," says study author Ka He, M.D. Next time you order in, have them hold the
MSG. And read food labels: The additive is listed as "hydrolyzed protein."
COPYRIGHT 2008 Weider Publications
COPYRIGHT 2008 Gale, Cengage Learning
source site: click here
Negative Effects of Being Trapped in the Past by Elaine Sihera
There are six major stages in our lives as adults. Adult emotional
evolution means that, unless we leave each stage behind us, we will always feel disorientated and stuck in the past, never
rehabilitating or getting away from it in order to grow into complete beings. In effect, our growth will be stunted because
we cannot ever move on.
Public figures (or prisoners)
who behave in any deviant way are a case in point. The media often rehash all their past misdemeanours ad nauseam. But everything
we do at every stage in our lives is part of our individual development and we only successfully reach the next stage on our journey if we can learn from experiences and move on, using each stage to build on the last.
If we are stuck back there, having to relive past acts constantly
when we can no longer affect their outcome, it stunts our growth and belittles subsequent achievements, creating new problems
of adjustment and self-worth at the latter stages in our life.
We then lose hope, as well as the feeling of control we have
over our existence, particularly when we are not given new opportunities to prove otherwise. This partly explains why so many
prisoners re-offend and the emotional crisis so many celebrities (like Britney Spears)
are going through now as their misdemeanours are relentlessly held up before them.
Back then, one 'drew a respectful veil' over past misdeeds after
a period of suitable repentance. Today, the media continually holds up those misdeeds like trophies, robbing the culprits
of any chance of redemption or of feeling better about themselves.
Negative Media Impact
Celebrities
and the ongoing conflict with the media are particularly caught up in this kind of situation. When they are at their first
staging post they are hungry for recognition and success, for their 15 minutes of fame which matter to them, and they lap it up eagerly.
By the time they are in Staging Post 3 and feeling vulnerable to invasion of their privacy and attacks on their personality, the last thing they need is publicity. It's a natural evolution
of our lives, to change our perspective through the years as we slowly mature. It was Muhammad Ali, the great boxer, who said
"The man who views the world at 50 the same way he did at 20 has lost thirty years of his life."
Being treated the same at every stage in one's development is
not only severely limiting, but it ignores later achievements and inevitable progress, while proving extremely frustrating
for the person concerned; one who has clearly moved on.
Being reminded constantly of those errors in judgment, people
treated like this tend to develop a persecution complex and feel ostracised, being the exact opposite of what the media wishes
to have, because such exposure simply kills the spirit. This important invisible force in our lives needs to be acknowledged
by both the media and the public.
The past is just one stage of our emotional evolution, just
like today and tomorrow. We cannot inhabit any one stage forever. We have to keep moving on to do full justice to the span
of our lives and personal potential.
source site: click here
Last night I dream for the umpteenth time
That
I was “trapped” in the past.
It was a holiday.
I had no place to go.
I
was alone.
So I went to a phone.
Dialed a number in the
past
A number I had come to know
As the only safe place I had
When heaven turns to hell.
A familiar voice on the line
Tells me to come
over.
She has faded to a familiar voice,
A presence that’s always there
Waiting for me.
But then I remembered:
This safe place had a price.
I was trading my Present
For a safe place in the Past.
I don’t want to go back there,
Don’t
want to be with the past,
I am fully aware of
My Present and Future
But something pulls me
The Fear of Loneliness
Calling
from the past
Even as the past
No longer touches
me
Fear holds me still.
I put down the phone
Picked up my bags and
Decided
right there
I would go back.
Then I woke up and
Realized the reason why
I
kept having the same dreams
Is not because of
“Unfinished business” with a man from the past
But because
where he lived was the
Only safe place I had known
When I was still young.
I cried.
Because I solved one riddle and
Because I mourn
for the little girl
Who is still walking.
http://janechin.com/trapped-in-the-past
Carnegie Mellon's robotics whiz oddly trapped in the past
seeing Red
By Ashlee Vance in Pittsburgh
Posted in Rise of the Machines, 21st June 2006 18:35 GMT
RoboBiz For the last
twenty years, the same robotics story has been written time and again. It goes something like, "The future is here. Robotics
has moved from promise to reality and is set to explode as a major money-making field."
Local robotics legend William "Red" Whittaker trotted out that
tired line today here at the Robo Business conference. Never afraid to pat himself on the back, the Carnegie Mellon University
professor promised a future full of autonomous vehicles, automated farming equipment and devices that can crawl through sewers
and mines and do so for a serious profit. Whittaker's placid speech stood in contrast to a number of other presentations at
the conference where robotics experts argued that much work remains to erase robotics' reputation as just about the most hype
filled industry.
At one point, Whittaker proclaimed that, "It's just pretty wonderful
to see (robotics) emerging as an authentic industry." He then took this notion one step further by saying that, "There is
no way to do justice to the things that are done here (in Pittsburgh)."
The tall, confident professor pitched Pittsburgh as the epicenter
of robotics development, saying its impact on the field is comparable to Silicon Valley's impact on computing technology or
Seattle's impact on software. And with Pittsburgh hungering for something with hi-tech gloss to replace a decaying steel industry,
city officials must welcome Whittaker's enthusiasm.
In reality, however, Whittaker has failed to dominate the two
most prominent robotics advancements in recent years.
Stanford, for example, won the ultra-celebrated DARPA Grand
Challenge event with a Volkswagen Taureg named Stanley designed by the school's artificial intelligence lab. Whittaker's Carnegie
Mellon team took the second and third places with a pair of Hummers. It's unlikely though that many will remember where the
Carnegie Mellon teams finished years from now with all of the glory going to the victor.
It's clear that Carnegie Mellon's poor performance in the first
Grand Challenge – where its vehicle went only a few miles – coupled with the more recent loss has left a bitter
mark in Whittaker's mind. During his speech today, the professor would only refer to Stanford's winning team as "the Volkswagen
guys."
Whittaker also glossed over the success of iRobot's Roomba vacuum,
which has garnered by far the most attention in the consumer robotics field.
Carnegie Mellon's aspirations, of course, stretch well beyond
making vacuums.
Whittaker directs the university's Field Robotics Center (FRC),
which works on large-scale machines geared toward more industrial tasks. You'll find the Demeter project for a self-propelled
hay harvester, the Icebreaker system for exploring the South Pole of the Moon, and the TRESTLE project for creating robots
that can handle complex assembly.
In addition, a major point of interest for Whittaker and Carnegie
Mellon is the Ferret project, which centers on a robot that can produce 3D maps of old mines. There are between 200,000 and
300,000 abandoned coal mines near Pittsburgh that humans refuse to enter.
Whittaker showed some impressive videos of a Ferret device making
its way through a mine and churning out a detailed map of the mine system along with pictures of the internal structure.
"A blockbuster for robotics is this underground world," he said.
Such technology could make its way to the military hoping to
map out bunkers and caves. Similarly, Whittaker has his eye on mapping sewers in old cities.
"The vernacular in the industry is that you make money from
robots in shit," he said.
But for a man so inspired by robotics, Whittaker overall delivered
a very lackluster speech to the Robo Business crowd. As always, he gave off the impression that he's got the whole field figured
out and that others are lucky to feed off the scraps Carnegie Mellon dribbles out.
Presenting the robotics industry as a mature field ready to
seize the business world seems the wrong message to hand to a crowd that is in reality struggling to move past prototypes.
"We want to talk about the robot industry not the robot demo
industry," said iRobot CEO Colin Angle, during an early presentation here. "The demo industry is doing quite well, thank you
very much."
"It is an irrelevant innovation to build a robot that is too
expensive for its target application," Angle continued. "The focus on things like walking robots research has substantially
slowed the industry."
And, wouldn't you know it, Whittaker is busying away on some
walking robot eye candy – a six-legged creature called Ambler.
As one of the major luminaries in his field, Whittaker would
do a better job of serving robotics at large by wrapping his agenda in a more humble air closer to that of the practical Angle.
There's no excuse for dismissing the Stanford robotics team
as "the Volkswagen guys" when Whittaker should have acknowledged the accomplishments of his rival. Similarly, there is no
way to justify Whittaker's championing of the robotics field as having achieved a critical mass when little evidence backs
up such claims.
As it often the case, academia plays in world separated from
reality by quite a margin. It's a shame to see the quixotic types still dominating the robotics discussion when some very
practical work needs to get done. ®
source site: click here
Gulf News, May 22, 2009
Troubled singer 'trapped by her past'
By
Patricia Khoder
BEIRUT - Director and producer Simon Asmar, who discovered Suzan
in the Studio Al Fan contest in 1996, remembered she "was 18 years old when she won the national contest. She was in college,
married to her first husband Ali Muzannar, who was in college with her".
"From her early years in showbiz, Suzan was a beautiful girl,
likeable, friendly, very well-mannered, and educated, probably the most educated singer of her generation," he told Gulf News.
He remembered when Suzan met her second husband, Adel Matouk,
she left Lebanon for Paris were he has a restaurant hosting singers and entertainers near the Champs Elysées. Suzan signed
a 15-year contract with Matouk. It was before problems surfaced between them, only eight months after their marriage.
Director
Gerard Avedissian, who worked with Suzan in 1997 in Elias Rahbani's musical play Ghadat Al Kamilia, was noticed her problems
with her first husband.
"She learnt her six songs and memorised her role in only 10
days. She was eager to learn. Eager to be in showbiz, ambitious," he said.
"She had a beautiful face, a nice voice. And she succeeded in Ghadat Al Kamilia which was her first appearance on stage.
"She was a young girl with tonnes of problems at the time. Then
she left Beirut for a while, went to London to escape from her first husband.
"Before moving to Dubai last year, Suzan lived for more than
four years in Cairo."
Composer Samir Sfeir was one of Suzan's friends. He composed
a song for her two years ago on the occasion of the first commemoration of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination.
"I was her friend. I used to spend vacations in Alexandria and
Sharm Al Shaikh with my wife, Suzan and her mother. We were even preparing for a CD. It was until about nine months ago ...
At that time, she left Egypt for London, to see her maternal uncle. After a week in the British capital she disappeared.
"I called her several times but I couldn't find her, there was
no answer. Then I knew that she wanted to get away from it all," he said.
"Suzan felt trapped, trapped
because of her past. She was generous, good-hearted, full of life, but sometimes she used to be angry and down. At these moments
she used to say that she had no luck and there wouldn't be any solutions to her problems," Sfeir said.
"She knew she was talented but that she couldn't progress in
her career because of her troubled private life. She was right," he said. "She suffered a lot and she used to feel alone.
She had two dreams, to release a new CD and become really famous and to come back home," he added.
Patricia Khoder is a freelance
journalist based in Beirut.
source site: click here
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